Gay Superbowl

Ah, the Oscars, how I love them. I am entering a few ballot competitions,sohere's hoping my pics bring me some nice pocket change. I always comeclose,but usually get tripped up by the damn small categories, like live action short. Just for fun, here are my pics for who will win, should win,and shoulda been a contender.

Picture
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Brokeback is my favorite of the year, and stands above the other nominees for it'sblendof emotional power, great performances, technical artistry--and also for being a landmark movie, showing gay love with more emotional truth than any other serious film in a long time, maybe ever.
Shoulda Been a Contender: The Constant Gardner. Mysterious Skin--another great "gay" film, but too "small"and dark and indy to have much of a shot.

Actor
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Should Win: Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Ledger's performance blew me away, but Hoffman will win for having the flashier role and for his body of work.
Shoulda Been a Contender: Joshua Gordon Levitt, Mysterious Skin. And so many others. This was a tough year. Ralph Fiennes in The Constant Gardener was fantastic too.

Actress:
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Should Win: Reese?
What a weak category. And, sadly, I have only seen Keira Knightley's performance. She was great, but Oscar worthy? Not so sure. The snips I've seen of Huffman's performance seem really mannered. Reese will win--yet again giving the award to a young A-list beauty.
Shoulda Been a Contender: Maria Bello in History of Violence, or is that a supporting performance? To me, she outshone anyone else I saw (save for Amy Adams, see below).

Supporting Actor:
Will Win: George Clooney, Syriana
Should Win: Clooney.
Okay,I didn't actually see Syriana, but I'm rooting for Clooney because he's hot and he's had a great year and seems like a good guy and he's a good ole liberal. I'd be happy if Jake won, too. Even Paul Giamatti, though he'd be winning for not having even been nominated for last year's Sideways.
Shoulda Been a Contender: Clifton Collins, Capote; Danny Huston, for playing a great slimeball in The Constant Gardener

Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Rachel Weisz, Constant Gardener
Should Win: AMY ADAMS!!!!
She and Heath Ledger get my vote for performances of the year. This girl was just brilliant, so real. Maybe she will sneak in a la Marisa Tomei. I'd be happy to lose this ballot pick.
Shoulda Been a Contender: Maria Bello, History of Violence. But, again, I am confused about which category she belongs in.Either way, she was robbed.

Director:
Will Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback
Should Win: Ang Lee, Brokeback
Ang Lee can do no wrong. He'll win for directing a masterpiece as well as for directing past gems like The Ice Storm and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
Shoulda Been a Contender: Miranda July, for directing one the most original and delightfully oddball movies of the year, Me and You and Everyone We Know. Props also for Greg Araki of Mysterious Skin.

Okay. Those are my 2 cents. I'd love to win theballot contests, but I'd be a very happy man with a big night for Brokeback and wins for Amy Adams and Heath Ledger. We'll see come Sunday night!